TURKEY Vs ITALY Euro 2021 Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips
Euro 2021 is about to kick off on June 11th after it was delayed last year due to the pandemic that had a massive impact on all our lives.
Turkey will face off Italy at Stadio Olimpico in Rome. This stadium will host all of Italy’s group stage games during the Euro 2021 and will also host a quarter finals match on July 3.
We’ll be giving you a preview on Turkey vs Italy for this opening fixure of Euro 2021 and we will be including the odds for this match and our predictions for the result as well as the predicted lineups.
So let’s get started…
Italy Form, potential line up and Tactics
Italy is one of the most successful teams in Europe having won the FIFA world cup 4 times. After Brazil they are tied with Germany in regards to the number of World cup titles.
After Brazil and Germany they are the third team to enter the most number of FIFA world cup finals.
Italy were struggling until 2018 when they failed to qualify for the 2018 FIFA World Cup for the first time since 1958.
But ever since Mancini has taken over as manager in 2018 Italy have been in fine form. Italy has won all of it’s 5 games in 2021 and qualified for the UEFA Nation’s League Finals without losing a single game.
They haven’t conceded a single goal in their last 8 games. Italy has always been critcized for being a very defensive team but they have scored an average of 3.13 goals in their last 8 games.
Italy are currently ranked 7th by FIFA.
How Does Italy Line Up?
Italy has been consistently lining up in a 4-3-3 formation although some times Mancini can switch things around with a 3-5-2 formation.
Under Mancini Italy plays a pretty direct style of football with 1 or 2 controlling midfielders. Italy likes to play out from the back. They tend to draw out the other team towards their half and quickly get a long pass to one of their midfielders who is good long passing ability like Jorginho, Locatelli or Marco Verratti.
In recent times Italy has preferred to play Locatelli, Jorginho and Nicolo Barrella who was instrumental in helping Inter Milan instead of Verratti who had a lukewarm campaign with PSG.
One of the full backs tends to push forward while the other tends to stay back and form a back three with the other two center backs.
This attacking full back is usually the left back while the right winger tends to stay wide and eventually cut inside.
You can expect Leonardo Spinazzola to be this attacking full back on the left and Alessandro Florenzi to be the more defensive fullback unless Mancini decides to run with a 3-5-2 formation.
One of the three midfielders, usually the one on the right, tends to support the attacking moves. This midfielder is usually Barrella but Locatelli is also known to be a threat especially when Italy is pushing high up the pitch.
Moving on to the attackers, Italy relies on quick, dynamic attackers who can quickly turn defense into attack.
Usually Barella or Chiesa start on the right which is where Italy prefers to attack from. Ciro Immobile usually is the center forward and is the most experienced player who works very hard to go up and down the pitch and link up with the other attackers.
Immobile is shadowed by Bellotti and helps to groom younger players like Barella and Chiesa.If there is one player you want to bet on to grab a goal, you should bet on Immobile!
Lorenzo Insigne usually starts on the left.
Donnaruma has taken over wonderfully from the legendary Buffon and is considered to be one of the best goalkeepers in the world. Italy also has Salvatore Sirigu as backup and he is very reliable, skilled and experienced.
Check out our predictions for Italy vs England in the Euro 2020 final
Italy Predicted line up
4-2-3-1 Donnaruma, Spinazzola, Bonucci, Chiellini,Florenzi,Locatelli,Jorginho,Barella,Insigne,Immobile,Barella
Although experienced and reliable, both of Italy’s Center backs are old. The captain Chiellini will turn 37 this year while his partner Bonucci is 34. There is a risk that they might get caught off guard by younger attackers who might outrun them especially during a counter.
These two center backs have to rely on their experience of reading the game and preventing these counter attacking runs from quick attacking players. Locatelli and Jorginho will have to be relied on and Jorginho is one of the best defensive midfielders in the world and could counter this weakness in the team by anchoring the defense.
Turkey form,potential line up and tactics
Turkey has featured in only two world cups and their last appearance in the world cup was in 2002 where they finished 3rd.
They were knocked off the group stage in the previous Euro championship in 2016, failed to qualify for Euro 2012 but finished 3rd in Euro 2008.
But don’t let their history fool you. Turkey has been unbeaten in the 6 games they have played so far in 2021 and they even managed to defeat Netherlands 4-2 in their world cup qualifiers group who are a much better team.
Turkey is currently ranked 27th in FIFA’s ranking.
Turkey’s manager is Senol Gunez who previously coached them between 2000 to 2004 and successfully guided them to a 3rd place finish in the 2002 World Cup.
How Does Turkey Line up?
Turkey prefers to play a counter-attacking style of football and stays compact in defense. They tend to line up in a 4-1-4-1 formation but can also line up in a 4-4-2 formation. Turkey tends to maintain a low block and play deep against strong opposition and waits to pounce on an opportunity to quickly conter-attack and exploit space.
Their defense is usually shielded by their main first choice defensive midfielder, Okay Yokuşlu.
When Turkey are in possession they tend to play out from the back much like Italy and try to punt line breaking long balls to their striker. Their main striker is Burak Yılmaz who scored 16 goals in 28 goals for Lille and helped them win Liegue 1 in France.
That’s pretty amazing considering Yilmaz will turn 36 this year.
Yilmaz is supported by younger and quicker attackers like Kenan Karaman who plays as a second striker if Turkey Line up in a 4-4-2 or starts on the right if they line up in a 4-1-4-1.
Hakan Çalhanoğlu is another talented attacker who regularly starts for Turkey. Although he is an attacking midfielder he usually starts as a left sided creative attacker who usually cuts in from the left and effectively forms a lethal attacking trident with Karaman and Yilmaz.
These three attackers are very tricky and their movement and link up play is very unpredictable for most defenders.
Another player to watch out for is 24 year old Yusuf Yazıcı.Yazıcı usually plays as a second striker or attacking midfielder for Lille but plays as an attacking midfielder for Turkey. He often switches positions with Çalhanoğlu which often surprises opposition defenders.
Ozan Tufan is their main box to box midfielder who starts just ahead of Okay Yokuşlu and provides the stability for Turkey’s attackers to flourish.
Turkey’s main center back is Çağlar Söyüncü who is often partnered with either Juventus Center back Merih Demiral, Karan Ayahan or Ozan Kabak.
Turkey’s defenders are young and play for the top clubs in Europe.
Zeki Celik is their right back and is usually the more attacking full back while Umut Meras is the preferred left back. Celik is 24 while Meras is 26.
Turkey Predicted line up
4-1-4-1 Mert Günok (GK), Celik, Kabak, Söyüncü, Meras, Yokuşlu, Çalhanoğlu,Tufan, Yazıcı,Karaman, Yilmaz
Turkey has a very young and dynamic squad but their defenders are yet to reach their prime. Mistakes can be made and the defenders have to rely on the experience of their defensive midfielder Yokuşlu.
Although defensively compact, Turkey is prone to being attacked from teams that can attack from wide areas and stretch the defense.
Turkey Vs Italy Predictions
This will be an interesting match up. The myth that Italy is a defensive team will be tested and in our opinion put to rest. This match will be an opportunity for Italy to prove to pundits who believe that Italy’s attack is not good enough to win the European Championship.
Turkey’s young and creative attackers could potentially outfox the more experienced but slower Italian center backs while Italy’s hardworking attackers who are known for their excellent ability to press high up the pitch, harass defenders and recycle possession could potentially lead to a lot of goals heading Italy’s way.
We expect Italy to win 2-0 in a hard drawn out battle against a very compact Turkish defense.
Turkey Vs Italy Odds
According to the odds it is clear that Italy is the clear favorite amongst bookmakers with odds between 1.5 to 1.6 (-200 to -167).
Bookmakers are offering odds of 6.8 to 7.5 for Turkey (+580 to +650). This seems to suggest that the bookmakers are quite confident that Italy will comfortably win the game.
Turkey vs Italy Euro 2021 Betting Tips
Usually we advise punters to look for games where both teams have at least a 2.0 or more odds to win and one of the teams is a clear favorite.
In games like this however, we suggest that you bet on the underdog. Even though we predict Italy to win we mentioned how dangerous Turkey can be and how they could easily exploit Italy’s slow center backs.
We suggest you put a small bet on Turkey and potentially rake in a profit of 7.6x compared to just 1.6x if you bet on Italy.
Isn’t a potential return of $76 better than a $16 bet if you place a $10 bet?
We found a bookmaker that’s offering the highest odds for Turkey that we could find. b-Bets is offering 7.60 odds for Turkey compared to the highest odds for Turkey according to odds checker which stands at 7.5.