Portugal vs France Euro 2021 Predictions & Betting Tips
Portugal vs France is the last game for both teams in group F. This will be a key match for both teams as they seek to qualify for the knockout rounds in Euro 2020. France just needs a draw to qualify. But France will seek out a week in order to stand a chance to win group F in Euro 2021.
If Portugal gets a draw against France and Hungary draw or lose against Germany, Portugal will finish 3rd in the group. This means they could still get a chance to qualify for the knockout round based on their rankings compared to other teams that finished 3rd in their groups.
Portugal would seek to avoid this fate and just like France, would be gunning for a win.
The Portugal vs France match will take place on June 23 in Budapest Hungary at 2100 hrs Central Eastern European Summer Time.
Portugal Form, Predicted line up and Tactics
Portugal won their opening game in Euro 2020 against Hungary 3-0 with 2 goals from Ronaldo. Apart from these 3 goals Portugal had plenty of opportunities in this game and looked solid at the back.
In their next game Germany, Portugal was attacking ferociously and scored in the 15th minute thanks to Ronaldo again. Portugal were defensively compact and decided not to press Germany.
This decision cost Portugal dearly as they conceded 2 goals in the space of 4 minutes, both of which were own goals. Portugal lost the game 4-2.
This game exposed two key weaknesses in Portugal. These two key weaknesses were:
- A lack of tactical flexibility.
- Poor defensive discipline
Check out our predictions for Italy vs England in the Euro 2020 final
Portugal’s initial tactic of being compact in defense worked initially, the fullbacks would stay narrow instead of staying wide which denied the German attackers and midfielders space to create.
However, this left a lot of room for the German wingbacks to attack from the width. They had a lot of open space which they exploited very well. The 2 goals were created from out wide which caught Guerriero and Dias by surprise as they were blindsided by the German wingbacks.
Even Though Portugal played with 2 defensive midfielders they just could not prevent the movement and interplay of Kimmich (who was the right fullback) and ginter (who was the right sided center back).
It is essential for defensive midfielders to be constantly moving around and winning back the ball, something that Danilo Perriera and William Caravlho were not up to task for.
Although the attackers, Bernando silva and Diago Jota would drop back to cover the wing backs, after Portugal conceded, Portugal were not able to defend as a unit.
Portugal usually play with a 4-2-3-1 system
Portugal love to play with width. The width comes from the full backs. Raphael Guerriero is usually the more attacking fullback and he comes in from the left while the right full back is a little more defensive.
The midfield consists of a more defensive midfielder while the other is a bit more of a box to box player. Sometimes this box to box midfielder drops deep and acts as a defensive midfielder as well, especially when Portugal are playing a strong team.
This is what we saw when Portugal played Germany with both Danilo Perriera and William Carvalho dropping deep.
Ronaldo is usually the lone striker who tends to wait for turnovers in possession, quickly create plays for the 3 attacking midfielders and then proceed to rush forward into the opposition box.
Bruno Fernandes is the first choice central attacking midfielder and he is usually flanked by Bernando Silva on the right and one of Diogo Jota or Joao Felix on the left.
Going into the game against France we expect a lot of changes to be made.
For starters we expect that one of Danilo Periera and William could be dropped and another defensive midfielder such as someone like Ruben Neves will take their place.
We expect Bruno Fernandes to drop in deeper and form a 3 man midfield which would effectively change Portugal’s formation to a 4-3-3 from a 4-2-3-1.
In Defence the 2 wide forwards will have to fall back in defence. When the lineups are announced, the line up might look like a 4-3-3 on your screen but in reality there is a high chance it will be more of a very dynamic 4-5-1.
We think a more likely line up would be a dynamic 4-2-2-2. Portugal could line up with 2 defensive midfielders,2 box to box midfielders who will drift wide or drift inside and 2 forwards so that the full backs can attack from width.
In Defence, their shape could yet again resemble a 4-5-1 with all the midfielders falling back along with 1 of the forwards.
They could set up in this way to outnumber France’s midfield which is usually set up with 3 midfielders.
Portugal Predicted line up
Joao Felix and Nuno Mendes picked up minor injuries which saw them missing the game against Germany. There is still no news whether they are available which reduces Portugal’s options.
France Form, Predicted line up and Tactics
Coming into the Euro 2020 France was in top form. Le Bleus lost only only 1 game in their last 13 games prior to the Euro 2021.
After a wonderful performance in their opening game against Germany, which France won 1-0, France struggled to break down Hungary in their second game.
Hungary sat deep and defended well while France’s talented,experienced and star studded team which usually has the knowhow to beat low blocks failed to crack open Hungary’s tight defence.
France tends to play counter-attacking football which we saw them do against Germany but they also have the depth in their squad to change their tactics to breakdown tight defences.
France’s fullbacks tend to sit deep and are anchored by Kante, the width comes from the wide forwards and the 2 midfielders that play ahead of kanta.
France usually start in a 4-3-3 but one of the attacks can drop deeper if they need an extra man in midfield to effectively form a 4-4-2.
This is what happened during the France vs Germany game when Griezman started to fall back and create plays from deep for his attacking teammates, Benzeema and Mbappe.
France will stick to this system and follow Germany’s example of exploiting the defensive frailty of Portugal on the wings.
France will try to hit Portugal on the break with Mbappe’s pace.
France Predicted line up
We expect France’s Line up to be largely unchanged. Oussamane Dembele picked up an injury against Hungary and probably won’t be on the bench.
Portugal vs France Euro 2021 Predictions
We mentioned how Portugal and France tend to play and the tactics they might use against each other when in our line up predictions for the game.
Here is a short summary of how predictions we have for Portugal vs France in this crucial game in Euro 2021:
- France will look to hit Portugal from wide with Mbappe. Guerrero is the left back and he is the more attacking left, while Mbappe plays on the right. Mbappe will be facing Guerrero from this side and try to exploit the space he leaves behind when Portugal are attacking.
- Portugal will try to counter this threat by trying to learn from their mistake against their game with Germany, that mistake being the failure to defend as a unit. As we explained earlier, they will try to fall back in a 4-5-1 shape and stay compact with only Ronaldo staying a bit further ahead looking to counter attack.
- Portugal is also a counter-attacking team but they are good at attacking from width. They know France has arguably the best midfield in the world and they would try to stretch this midfield wide with their fullbacks and 2 of their box to box “free” midfielders when Portugal has the ball.
In the last 5 games between Portugal and France,3 games were won by France, 1 game by Portugal and 1 game ended in a draw. In these five games only 6 goals were scored. That means on average each game had an average of 1.2 goals per game.
If we consider the goals scored in the last 4 games, this average drops to less than 1 goal (0.75 goals per game to be precise).
A draw seems highly unlikely in a game of this magnitude but history seems to suggest that there won’t be a lot of goals scored in this one. Once one of these teams scores, that team would play more cautiously.
The lack of options for Portugal due to the Cancelo having to pull out of Euro 2020 due to covid and injuries to Nuno Mendes, Joao Felxi and Andre Gomes, Portugal will have a hard time to switch things up, especially in defence.
This key but unfortunate fact could give France an edge and we predict France to win 1-0 against Portugal
Portugal vs France Euro 2020 Odds
Bookmakers are offering the following odds for the Portugal vs France match in Euro 2021:
- Portugal 3.85
- Draw 2.95
- France 2.25
By these odds we can clearly see that the bookmakers favor France in this match between Portugal and France in Euro 2020.
Bookmaker offers for Portugal vs France Game and Euro 2020
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Portugal vs France Euro 2021 Betting Tips
The reason for that is simple, the odds for both teams are above 2.0 and it will be a closely contested match.
This means that you can triple your money by betting on Portugal or a draw and double your money if you bet on France.
That being said, we have a betting tip for you that could help you win some money no matter who wins…
Place one bet on Portugal to win and one bet(of equal amount) on France to win. In this case you only lose your money if there is a draw but that is unlikely to happen in such a crucial game.
So essentially what you do is you split your budget for the game. Let’s say you have a budget of €200 for this game. You place one bet of €100 on Portugal and another €100 on France.
If Portugal wins your Profit percentage would be 92.5% because your Profit would be €325-€200=€125.
If France wins you would still end up with a 12.5% profit (€225-€200=€25. 25 is 12.5% of 200).
Sure, this system means that your profit percentage would be lower if you just bet on one team (285% profit if you just bet on Portugal and 125% if you just bet on France) but this system ensures that you don’t lose any money.
Keep in mind that this is not a fool proof system. If the match ends in a draw you will lose but as we pointed out earlier, the likelihood of a draw is very low.
|Team||Odds||Bet Amount||Win||Profit %|
High payout betting options for France vs Germany
- Under 1.5 total goals to be scored. Odds, 2.95. We recommend this one based on the data of the past 5 games where only an average of 1.2 goals were scored.
- France to win, under 1.5 total goals to be scored.Odds7.0. This is an amazing options based on historical data and current form. This option would help you win 7x or 700% of your bet amount and end up with a profit of 6x or 600%!
- Handicap betting, Portugal with 1-0 advantage, match ends in draw(x). Odds 3.85. Because we expect France to win 1-0, in this handicap scenario the match would be a draw and you end up winning. This is an excellent option because the last time a game between Portugal and France ended up in a situation where one team won with a margin of more than 1 goals was way back in the 2001 (which France won 4-0).
- Anytime goal scorer and match winner bets. Here are some really high payout options as well. We are putting the odds of a win for france and the player who will score:
-Kylian Mbappe, odds 4.10
-Antoine Griezman, odds 4.40
-Karim Benzeema, odds 4.40
-Ronaldo, odds 11.0 (yes, we predicted a win for France with a 1:0, scoreline but Ronaldo is in fine form so there is still a chance he sneaks one in and france wins 2:1)