Italy vs Spain Euro 2020 Predictions and Betting Tips

After nearly a month of fascinating Football this summer, we have finally reached the semi-finals of Euro 2020.

Italy vs Spain will be the first semi final match in Euro 2020. The Italy vs Spain match will take place on July 6 at 2100 hrs Central Eastern European Summer Time at the Wembley Stadium in London.

Italy’s Current Form

Italy waltzed through to the round of 16 as winners of group A, winning each of their 3 games and then followed it up with an excellent performance against Austria in the round of 16.

Italy seemed to face its first real challenge in the semi finals when they faced the best ranked team in the world, Belgium.

Belgium were in control of the game and defending with determination. Belgium were compact in defence with 5 men at the back which proved to be effective against most teams during Euro 2020. 

This is reflected in the statistics as well. Prior to facing Italy, Belgium had one of the best defensive records in the European Championship. They just conceded 1 goal in 4 games.

Belgium’s defense was effective in cancelling out one of the most attacking teams during Euro 2020, Portugal. Portugal attempted 23 shots against Belgium in the round of 16 knockout game which was arguably the highest number of attempts of any team during Euro 2020.

These facts stand as evidence of how strong Belgium’s defence was.

In our game preview for the Belgium vs Italy game we had mentioned just how talented Italy was in breaking even the tightest defences and they did exactly that in the 31st minute.

Verratti made an excellent pass to Barrella who was in the box, Barrella was being marked by 3 Belgian defenders as soon as he received the ball and then was tackled, and still managed to find his feet and instantly make a clinical shot into the far corner which caught Belgium’s goalkeeper, Courtois by surprise.

This goal demonstrates amazing athleticism and technical quality from Barrella and Italy as a team.

The second goal from Italy which was scored by Lorenzo Insigne was also a piece of technical brilliance. 

Check out our predictions for Italy vs England in the Euro 2020 final!
He dribbled from the center of the pitch and made an excellent shot past 3 Belgium defenders outside the box which was again placed excellently that beat Courtois again.

These facts clearly demonstrate Italy’s attacking prowess and their technical ability to score even against the best defenses in the world.

But apart from their amazing attacking prowess Italy also showed determination in defence.

After Belgium conceded in the 31st minute Belgium attacked Italy ruthlessly.

Belgium made 10 attempts on goal which is higher than the 8.3 attempts per game they attempted. In fact this is the second highest number of attempts they made during Euro 2020. This number is even higher than the attempts Belgium made against Portugal.

Although Belgium made several amazing attempts, and eventually scored through a penalty. In the second half Belgium were extremely ruthless in attack. Belgium were also especially quick in transitioning from defence to attack.

But the Italian defence stayed strong and the game ended 2-1.

With this win over Belgium, Italy are now undefeated in 32 games! The last time Italy lost the game was close to 3 years ago in September 2018!

With these facts in mind it seems very likely that Spain might have a hard time winning against such a talented team.

Italy Tactics

In the picture above from whoscored.com, you can see Italy positioning  in attack against Belgium. This is very much different from the way they positioned themselves usually when they are in attack when Italy tends to push much higher up the pitch, just like in the picture below:

Did you notice the difference in between the two pictures? As you can see,Italy? For starters  Jorginho (number 8) is sitting further back, in fact all the players are from their usual attacking position (which is picture 2).

The whole team is quite compact in attack. This is a good indication of discipline in Italy’s build up because if there is too much space between the players that space can be exploited by the opposition team.

Being compact in attack is hard to do because individual players can become a bit too excited while pressing without the ball or passing and running forward with the ball.

Another key difference we can see is that the right full back and the other center back have ffallen further back with the main center back and Number 6 and Number 18 (Verratti and Barrella) are closer to the wide forwards (Numbers 10 and 14) respectively.

This suggests that the 2 midfielders played close to the 2 forwards which created a lot of opportunities and passes for them. The other full back, Spinnazzola also was cautious and was not positioned too further forward demonstrating his discipline with regards to his defensive duties.

We can also see that most of Italy came from the left. In fact, 50% of their attacks came from the left compared to 23% from the center and 27% from the right.

From these observations we can conclude that Italy are a tactically disciplined and technically gifted team.

Italy Predicted line up for Italy vs Spain

Spinnazzola was a key player for Italy considering he was essential in assisting the attacks as a left full back. 

He was injured during the game and medical examinations after the game revealed that he ruptured his Achilles tendon. This is a serious injury and ends Spinnazzola’s journey in Euro 2020. 

We at slotfreespin hope Spinnazzola recovers from this unfortunate injury.

We don’t expect any changes to the line up but we are not sure about the right forward spot because both Chiesa and Berrardi are equally talented so don’t be surprised if one starts over the other.

4-3-3

Donnarumma,Emerson,Bonucci,Chiellini,Florenzi,Verratti,Jorginho,Barella,Insigne,Immobile,Chiesa

Spain Form

Before starting their Euro 2020 campaign Spain was experiencing a great run of form. Spain qualified for this season’s nations league finals. They scored 13 goals and conceded just 3 goals on their triumphant march to the finals.

During the nations league, only Belgium scored more goals than Spain and only Italy conceded fewer goals than Spain.

Spain has also lost only 1 of the 13 games they played prior to the Euro 2020. However, during this time they also struggled to decisively win their games because they won 6 of those games and drew 6 of them.

These problems were also evident during Spain’s group stage games. Spain’s first two matches ended up in a draw. Goals were also hard to come by with one of the games ending 0-0. But Spain turned it around with their amazing performance against Slovakia with the game ending 5-0!

The knockout game against Croatia seemed to be going well for Spain.After conceding a goal in the 20th minute Spain equalized in the 38th minute . They would go on to put on a strong performance in the second half and were leading thanks to a goal in the 57th and then another one from Ferran Torres in the 77th minute.

After leading 3-1 at this point, qualification to the quarterfinals seemed guaranteed but Spain conceded two goals in quick succession. In the last 10 minutes of the game.

The game would go on to extra time and Spain would score two goals to win the game 5-3.

This game showcased an important weakness in the Spanish side, the propensity to concede goals from counter-attacks. 

Spain’s coach recognized this problem and instructed his side to play more cautiously in the quarter final game against Switzerland which ended in yet another draw. The game was eventually decided through a penalty shootout.

Spain tactics

If there is one word to describe Spain’s tactics that word would be “fluid”. Spain is packed with talent across the field and it is difficult for teams to predict the way this team will pay. We will try our best to summarize Spain’s tactics during the European Championship.

  • Spain usually sets up in a 4-3-3 formation
  • Either both or of the forwards like to stay wide
  • Either both the full backs will join the attack from wide or one of them falls back to form a back 3.
  • Spain like to play to play a possession based style of football with more emphasis on directness
  • The forward is more of a “false 9”.
  • The players are very adaptable in regards to with they have to do on the pitch

The Spaniards like to press but with bigger teams, they often leave out space that the opposition tends to exploit well which we saw in their games against Croatia and Switzerland.
Keep these facts in mind as we head towards the predictions for the Italy vs Spain game in the semi final of Euro 2020…

Spain lineup

4-3-3

Unai Simon,Alba,Pau Torres,Laporte,Azpilicueta,Pedri,Busquets,Koke,Olmo,Morata,Ferran Torres.

Italy vs Spain Euro 2021 Odds

Bookmakers are offering the following odds for the Italy vs Spain game in Euro 2020:

  • Italy 2.47
  • Draw 3.20
  • Spain 3.10

Italy vs Spain Euro 2020 Predictions

We can clearly see from the bookmaker odds that Italy are the favorites to win this semi final game between Italy vs Spain. If you checked out the review we did on Italy’s current form and performance and compare that to Spain’s we can clearly see why that is.

We believe that Spain will yet again try to be aggressive while pressing Italy because they must have noticed that if they remain compact without pressing Italy can shoot from long and score just like Italy did with Insigne’s goal against Belgium.

But as we pointed out earlier, Spain are prone to counter attacks when they go on the offensive and press aggressively. Italy on the other hand are more than capable of scoring on counter-attacks.

If Spain do decide to sit back then Italy will surely break them down because they broke down the strongest defensive teams in the world in their game against Belgium. We also talked about how they broke the Belgian defence.

Because of Spinnazzola’s injury we expect Spain to attack from the right in order to make the most of his absence.

But in spite of this fact, we believe that Italy will win 2-1.

Italy vs Spain Betting Tips

From these odds we can clearly see that Italy are favorites to win this quarterfinal game.

If you read our articles on football betting systems and football betting tips, you would realize Italy vs Spain is the perfect match to place a bet on in Euro 2020.

The reason for that is simple, the odds for both teams are above 2.0 and it will be a closely contested match.

This means that you can more than double your money by betting on Italy and triple your money if you bet on Spain or a draw.

That being said, we have a betting tip for you that could help you win some money no matter who wins…

Place one bet on Italy to win and one bet(of equal amount) on Spain  to win. In this case you only lose your money if there is a draw but that is unlikely to happen in such a crucial game.

So essentially what you do is you split your budget for the game. Let’s say you have a budget of €200 for this game. You place one bet of €100 on Italy and another €100 on Spain.

If Spain wins your Profit percentage would be 55% because your Profit would be €310-€200=€110 and 110 is 55% of your investment of 200.

If Italy wins you would still end up with a 23.5% profit (€255-€200=€47 is 23.5% of 200).

Sure, this system means that your profit percentage would be lower if you just bet on one team (210 % profit if you just bet on Spain and 147% if you just bet on Italy) but this system reduces the chances that you will lose your money.

Keep in mind that this is not a fool proof system. If the match ends in a draw you will lose but as we pointed out earlier, the likelihood of a draw is very low.

TeamOddsBet AmountWinProfit %
Spain3.10€100€31055%
Italy2.47€100€24723.5%