Italy vs Austria Euro 2021 Predictions & Betting Tips
Italy vs Austria is the second game in the knockout stage in Euro 2020. This game will take place on June 26 at 2100 hrs Central Eastern European Summer Time at the Wembley Stadium in London.
Italy Form, Predicted line up and Tactics
Before starting their Euro 2020 campaign Italy had every single game they played since November 2020. They played 8 matches and conceded 0 goals, yes 0! But that’s not all, Italy have been unbeaten since October 2018. That means they were unbeaten in 27 consecutive games before their opening match in Euro 2020.
They continued this amazing record winning every single group game in Euro 2020 without conceding a single goal. They are the only team in the Euros at this point to concede 0 goals.
A lot of Football fans used to criticize Italy for playing very defensive football but they have also been fantastic in attack, especially during the Euros.
Italy has scored 7 goals during the group stage in Euro 2020, Only the Netherlands scored more goals (8 goals).
Italy also had the second highest number of attempts on goals during the group stage. Italy created 60 goal scoring attempts, Denmark created just one more at 61 and the third team to create the most chances created 13 fewer opportunities than Italy.
Italy also registered the second highest number of shots on target in the group stage.
So what’s behind Italy’s turn in attacking fortune and amazing form?
Check out our predictions for the Euro 2020 Final!
Roberto Mancini and his tactics. We have discussed Italy’s tactics in previous match predictions and we will summarize it below:
- Italy usually start with a 4-3-3 formation
- Italy plays a direct style of football with high pressing
- Italy build from the back and have the ability to quickly turn defence into attack.
But how do they do it?
How Italy became an attacking team
Football is a team sport. Oftentimes star studded teams fail in international tournaments because they can’t play together as a unit. Italy however avoids this problem and as a matter of fact, works very well and extremely hard as a team.
The players switch around and are dynamic across the field. This is in direct contrast to many teams where this fluidity is only seen in the forwards or perhaps the midfield.
If Italy gain possession from their own half starting with goalkicks, Donnaruma sets up the play to his defenders. Donnaruma is one of the best goalkeepers and he is also good on the ball.
This ball playing ability is also seen in their veteran center backs, Chiellini (who is also the captain) and Bonucci. These two have played together in international games for Italy for many years and are 36 and 34 years old respectively.
Although Chiellini and Bonucci may not have the pace they used to, their tactical intelligence,awareness and positioning helps them to prevent attacks and they are not alone.
As you can see in the picture above, the right back (who is usually Florenzi) plays defensively and falls back to their right and Jorginho who is one of the most talented defensive midfielders protects them and they form a 4 man defensive unit in the form of a diamond.
This diamond moves the ball around amongst themselves and are great at long range passing. This helps Italy immensely because if their defensive midfielder is being marked by the opposition, to prevent him from progressing the ball to the forwards, the other 3 players in this diamond are more than capable of passing it long to the forwards.
The left full back, Spinnazzola is an attacking fullback who stays wide on the left and creates deadly passes and crosses for his teammates in the box.
This allows the left forward, who is usually Lorenzo Insigne to cut inside into the box and join the attack.
Berardi is a classic wide forward who is very much like Spinnazzola but he has the ability to cut inside as well.
These four players form an attacking line across the pitch. But Italy has a secret weapon, 24 year old Nicolò Barella. Because Italy like to attack from the left it leaves room on the right and Barrella uses his pace to run into the box during attacks and effectively forms a ferocious 5 man attack.
Barrella is a complete box to box midfielder and even though he is enthusiastic about joining attacks, he has the discipline to fall back to help out the defence.
If they lose the ball the whole team presses while maintaining their shape and then quickly transition to attack.
This is why Italy are great at attacking or shall we say, counter-attacking.
Strong teams like Italy that are good at attacking face a peculiar problem from teams that like to counter attack themselves. These teams tend to stay deep and compact in defense which denies teams like Italy the space to create opportunities.
But Italy are great at beating these teams as well. They do this by effectively stretching the field with their wide forwards. When they do this on one side, say the left with Immobile, the opposition team’s players tend to move in that direction.
This leaves gaps that Italy are great at exploiting. Now, most teams can move the gaps through this gap but they are not quick enough in making decisive passes and this indecision causes the defending team to fall back into shape and the attacking team to pass the ball side to side or backwards.
But Italy are well trained to exploit these gaps and exploit them quickly thanks to the fact that their wide forwards are natural center forwards who can make well timed runs and have amazing movement without the ball.
Italy Predicted line up
Italy rested and rotated 8 of their starters in the final group stage game against Wales. After earning their well deserved rest we expect Italy to revert back to their favorite starting 11.
Austria Form, Predicted line up and Tactics
After a fine season in the Nations League which saw them being promoted to League A for the 2022-23 UEFA Nations League. However going into the Euro 2020 Austria have not been in great form in 2021.
They played 5 games prior to their match with North Macedonia in Euro 2020 winning only 1 game against Faroe Island, a team that is currently ranked 113th.
Austria finished runners up to Netherlands in Group C of Euro 2020 with 6 points.
The stats point out that Austria created 144 attacks which makes them the 4th teams with the most number of attacks.
In terms of defence, Austria won the most number of tackles so far at 26 successful tackles and recovered 152 balls, which makes the team with the second highest ball recoveries.
Austria is also tied with Denmark on the second spot for the most number of successful crosses.This gives us a clue of the tactics Austria likes to use.
Austria usually sets up in a 3-5-2 system when they face a strong opponent like Italy. For starters in games like this, Austria lines up with 3 center backs.
David Alaba is at the center of this defence and he is the center back who likes to push up and progress the ball forwards.Alaba is flanked by Ulmer and Dragovic.
The midfield consists of 2 wingbacks, 2 defence midfielders and 1 box to box midfielders. The left wingback is the more attacking wingback who loves to create opportunities with crosses into the box, this wingback is Sabitzer.
The right wingback is usually Lainer and he stays back and assists the defenders. The defensive midfielders are usually Xver Schlager and Ulmer who try to progress the ball to the forwards and protect the defenders especially from the space that Sabitzer tends to leave behind when he attacks from the left.
The 1 box to box midfielders try to flood into the box during counter attacks and tracks back when the team loses possession.
Austria loves to press high while maintaining a compact defensive shape.
In defence one of the forwards tends to fall back and Austria essentially look like a 5-4-1.
Austria has a reputation for quickly turning defence into attack very much like Italy. However in spite of winning 2 games, a lot of weaknesses could be seen in Austria’s perfromance.
For starters, their defence seemed to be very uncoordinated. This could be seen in the goal they conceded in their opening game against North Macedonia. The defence was also exposed in their loss to the Netherlands and their win over Ukraine.
Another problem that Austria faced was in their finishing.
Austria Predicted line up
We expect Austria’s Line up to be largely unchanged apart from the re-introduction of their veteran striker Arnautovic.
Italy vs Austria Euro 2021 Predictions
Austria’s attacking threat comes from Sabitzer on the left but that is exactly where Italy like to shore up their defence with their right fullback Florenzi preferring to play deeper.
Austria will try to press Italy aggressively but Italy has a solid backline and even though Chiellini and Bonucci are not as fast as they used to be they have good awareness and position as well as a lot of help from their teammates.
We don’t think Austria would be able to outfox these two legendary center backs. Italy’s main threat would be Sabitzer’s crosses from the left and Florenzi would need to be on top of his game to prevent Sabitzer to whip in crosses from there.
Arnautovic is deadly in the air and he could solve their problem with finishing. However we expect Italy to keep another clean sheet.
Italy has proven time and time again that they have the caliber to break down even the most defensive teams and we expect their front 3 to do exactly that against an Austrian defence that has made quite a lot of mistakes in Euro 2020.
We at slotfreespin expect Italy to create a lot of chances and to win 3-0.
Italy vs Austria Euro 2020 Odds
Bookmakers are offering the following odds for the Italy vs Austria match in Euro 2021:
- Italy 1.52
- Draw 4.00
- Austria 7.00
By these odds we can clearly see that the bookmakers favor Italy in this match between Italy and Austria in Euro 2020.
Bookmaker offers for Italy vs Austria and Euro 2020
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Italy vs Austria Euro 2021 Betting Tips
As we mentioned earlier in our Italy vs Austria prediction section of the article, we predict Italy to win 3-0. Because of the high odds for Italy we don’t advise you to bet on Italy because you won’t get a big profit with a simple match bet.
The reason for this has been discussed in our articles on football betting systems and football betting tips where we discuss strategies that can help you to develop your own football betting system and make profitable football bets.
To cut a long story short, you should avoid placing match winner bets if the odds for your team are less than 2.0.
That being said handicap bets, over/under betting options can prove to be profitable bets not only for this Euro 2020 match between Italy and Austria but also most football games during the Euros with a clear favorite and underdog.
Here are some betting tips we have for you in Italy vs Austria game in Euro 2020:
- Italy to win, only one team or no team to score (also called NG). Odds 2.00
- Over 2.5 goals to be scored. Odds 2.24
- Over 2.5 goals to be scored. Only one team or no team to score. Odds 6.20
- Italy to win, a total of over 2.5 goals to be scored. Odds 2.60
- Italy to win 3-0. Odds 9.80
- Handicap italy 0,Austria 1, Italy to win. Odds 2.44
- Handicap Italy 0, Austria 2, Italy to win. Odds 4.90
- Handicap Italy 0, Austria 3, Draw. Odds 6.80
- Immobile to score Italy to win. Odds 2.75
- Berardi to score,Italy to win. Odds 3.45
- Immobile to score Italy win 3-0. Odds 16.00
Euro 2020 match predictions for other knockout stage games:
We have match predictions for other games in the round of 16 in Euro 2020. Feel free to check them out!