F1 Betting Strategy– How to Bet on Formula 1
It can be very entertaining and most importantly, profitable to bet on Formula 1 races. Betting on F1 becomes profitable when you use a proper betting strategy for Formula 1 otherwise just like any sport, you will be left at the mercy of Lady Luck.
So if you want to know all the secrets about F1 betting, you are in the right place. After reading our F1 betting strategy, F1 betting tips and a bit of patience, you will be on your way to betting profitably on Formula 1.
Some of these tips may seem like common sense, while some may seem a bit more complex. But regardless of your knowledge of Formula 1, after reading this article you’ll be equipped with the knowledge to place your first bet on an F1 race and if you apply what you learned here, who knows, maybe you’ll be a professional at F1 betting!
Now before we move on to our betting tips for F1 we have a word of advice for you, be patient. It can take time and to figure out patterns and strategies that work for you. If you bet a lot of money on your first few bets you might risk blowing through your betting budget in no time.
So without further ado, here are 5 F1 betting tips for you!
F1 Betting Tips
F1 Betting tip 1: Understand the types of Bets in F1 Betting
Being in the know with regards to what things you can bet on F1 is vital. It helps you to decide and how to use which type of F1 bet in what situation to maximize your profits.
In this type of bet you bet on which constructor’s driver would win the bet. For example you would bet on Mercedez, Ferrari or McClaren.This market shifts throughout the year depending on how many races a constructor’s driver or drivers win throughout the year.
Drivers’ Championship Winner
As the name suggests, in this type of F1 bet you bet on which driver will win the championship.
This market also shifts throughout the year as racers emerge atop the standings.
Here you’ll bet the driver that wins the race. New odds are offered before every single race and well as during with live betting options.
This market concentrates on the driver that during a single race will complete an individual lap in the quickest time.
This is the most popular bet on the Qualifying session and can be a winner if you predict the driver that finishes the session in the fastest time. A very easy bet to understand.
A popular market, here you wager the driver that obtains the pole position during the qualifying portion of the Grand Prix.
A safer betting option, this market covers drivers that will take a podium position at the end of the race.
Over/under betting in F1- The Winning Margin bet
If you have any experience in Over/Under betting, then this one will be fairly easy to understand. In order to win this type of Formula 1 bet, you must select if the winning margin between first and second place will be more or less than the time offered by a bookmaker.
For example, this might be advertised as over or under 5.5 seconds by a bookmaker. If you believe it will be more or less than 5.5 seconds, simply place your wager and you’re done!
This bet is very similar to the one above. Rather than betting an Over/Under, your bet will be a yes or no on the appearance of a safety car during the race. If you believe that a safety car will be on the track, you will bet “Yes.” If not, you will bet “No.”
Now we have covered the most popular bets, let’s move on to a few key things to consider when devising your betting strategy.
Tip 2: Bet on Multiple Drivers in the Same Race
Conventional wisdom would suggest that when you are betting on an F1 race you should bet on the driver you think will win the race or the championship for the year. But if you were to look at how professional F1 bettors place their bets you would be surprised to learn that they bet on more than 1 driver to win a race.
The reason why professional Formula 1 bettors bet on more than 1 driver to win is that bookmakers tend to offer high payouts on F1 drivers. So if your driver loses, you can still recuperate your losses if the other driver you bet on wins!
Let’s look at the odds being offered on bet365 for the winner of the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix
And now let’s look at how many drivers won how many races in the 2020 season:
|Driver||Races Won||Percentage of races won|
Now, lets say you have $100 to bet on who will win the race. You decide to bet $50 on Hamilton and $50 on Verstappen, If either of them win, you will make a profit of $10.
Now consider this statistic. Hamilton and Verstappen won more than 76% of last year’s races. This means that using this F1 betting strategy there is a 76% chance that you will make a profit of at least 10% of your bet amount in the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix.
|Driver||Races won||Percentage of races won|
This F1 betting system allows you to win because of the good odds which are above 2.0. You can read odds of 2.0 or more as odds that at least double your money.
Now, this strategy would not work if one of the drivers has odds of less than 2.0. Let’s see what happens to our model when Hamilton has odds of 1.9:
As you can, you would stand to lose $5 if Hamilton loses the race and Verstappen wins the race. Ok, that’s better than losing all your money in a standard bet but we just wanted to show you how the model works and how you can use statistics to make somewhat accurate predictions while placing your bets.
So keep this bonus tip in mind, when you are betting on more than 1 driver to win an F1 race, look for odds of at least 2.0 or more for each driver!
Historically, F1 1 driver tends to win most of the races during a Formula 1 season. For example, in the 2020 season Hamilton won,11 out of 27 races which is about 64% of the races, Bottas and Verstappen won 2 races each. This means that the pair of them won 11.76% of races each and these three drivers won 88.24% of the races.
In the 2019 F1 season, Hamilton won 11 out of 21 races which means he won 52.38% of the races in 2019. Bottas won 4 or 19.05% of the races. The driver with the most wins that year was Verstappen with 3 races or 14.29% of all the races. This means that these 3 drivers won 85.72% of all races that season.
In 2018, Hamilton again won 11 out of 21 races or 52.38% and his closest competitor was Vettel who won 5 races or 23.81% of all the races. This means that in 2018 these 2 drivers alone won, over 76% of all the races.
Now, keep in mind that this using this strategy won’t get you the same profits as what you would get when betting on just 1 driver, but in the long run, it’s a safer option and by the end of the season these small wins will add up to a nice profit.
For example, Imagine you made a profit of at least $10 over an F1 season with 21 races. This means that over a year, you made a profit of $210 or more.
Now, another word of advise with regards to this model. You don’t have to bet the same amount of money on each driver, you can decide to be riskier and bet more on the driver who has better odds.
For example, you could bet 60% of your $100 on Hamilton because he has better odds and risk a losing 12% of your budget but walk away with a 35% profit ($35 of $100) .
If you have a higher appetite for risk you can 70% on Hamilton who has higher odds and 30% on Verstappen who offers lower odds.
If Hamilton wins, you make a profit of more than 57% of your budget and if Verstappen wins you lose 34% of your bet amount, which is still better than losing 100% of it if you just bet on either one and lost the bet.
Tip 3: Understand the Circuit History
Just like pitching pounds affect baseball games, and different types of courts affect the performance of tennis players, in Formula 1, the different racing circuits in F1 affect a driver’s performance.
You can see this in the historical performance of a particular driver in a particular circuit in F1. For example, one driver would have an outstanding performance in a circuit with a lot of hairpins turns which requires a lot of maneuvering but does that necessarily mean he would do well in a circuit that has a lot of high speed straightways?
The answer is no one knows. This is exactly why you need to check on the historical performance of the driver or drivers you choose to bet in a particular race in a particular circuit.
Sure, if a driver is on a hot streak it might seem very reasonable to bet on him. But that being said, does it not make more sense to account for other variables just to be a little more confident with regards to your F1 predictions?
Finding this information is as easy as researching race results from the past few years. You can take it a step further and look at race footage to see how they navigate certain situations, but that is all up to how much you want to research.
You can even break this down even further and see how they fared under certain weather conditions, under certain starting grid positions, and under any other conditions that may or may not be the same for upcoming races. The more homework you do, the better your chances are of finding an edge.
Tip 4 Research the Team Dynamics
Even though F1 is an individual sport it does involve teamwork. There are 10 constructors in the F1 and each constructor has 2 drivers. Yes, it’s true that each driver aims to win the title for himself but sometimes, they do cooperate with the other driver on their team and help each other out. Constructors also compete with each other to win the World Constructors’ Champions every year.
They do this in several ways such as passing along track information which is called “drafting”, or race setups, faster lanes etc.
Now how does this information fit in with F1 betting? The answer is simple, the stronger driver is usually the one receiving help from the weaker teammate.
The second reason is also the more important one. If a driver has a decent driver on his team he gets better drafting information which can dramatically improve his performance vs a very underwhelming teammate who usually finishes last.
This shouldn’t be a huge part of your betting strategy for F1, but it needs to be weighed in. We recommend using this when you’re close on a bet and not sure which direction to go. Use the strength of the driver’s teammate to push you over the edge one way or the other. With margins of victory so close in the sport, you’re probably going to have a lot of close situations where you need something to help you “break the tie.”
Tip 5 Check the Qualifying Time Before Placing A Bet
The fastest car in qualifying does not mean that it will be the fastest car on race day. Many variables can kick in on race day which could affect race conditions between qualifying and the actual race.
Changes in temperature, precipitation, or humidity can seem like minor variables but they have huge effects on F1 cars and F1 circuits which in turn can affect a driver’s performance on race day.
If a team fails to adapt quickly and appropriately, even if its driver starts on pole position during qualifying, the same driver might fail to win or even end up finishing in the bottom top.
The reason you need to be aware of this with betting is so you don’t put all of your eggs in the qualifying basket. Many bettors have a tendency to want to bet the fastest qualifier and leave it at that. The problems with this are that, as we mentioned, conditions can change, and qualifying laps are run without traffic or anyone else in their way. This means we don’t know how well the cars will fare in dirty air. They may do just fine, but don’t automatically assume that because a car qualified fast, it’s going to keep that up on race day.
You should pay attention to the cars that get top grid spots on tracks where passing is tougher (like Monaco). These tracks will be very challenging for the drivers in the back to execute enough passes to get all the way to the front of the field. On some courses where passing is easier, this won’t play as big of a role, though the fewer cars they have to pass, the better.
In a sport sometimes decided by seconds, it’s important that you search for any information or conclusions that can give you an edge. The tips and strategies we’ve provided for you above should serve as a strong starting point, but should not be the end-all for making your F1 picks. Take the tips and strategies that we’ve given you and work to couple those with your own research. With some hard work and a sharp mind, you should be able to develop a winning betting strategy.
Remember, always be looking for value, and when you find a great spot, go for it. Being a professional F1 bettor is not easy; otherwise, everyone and their brothers would be doing it. That being said, it is beatable with the right skillset and work ethic. Take your time, mind your bankroll manners, and you should be well on your way to finding success with your Formula 1 bets