Euro 2020 Final: Italy vs England Predictions,Odds & Betting Tips 

After nearly a month of some action packed football we have finally reached the final of Euro 2020! Euro 2020 was full of twists and turns and goals and of course, some amazing performances both at an individual and team level.

In this article we will be giving you our predictions for the Euro 2020 final game between Italy and England and try to answer the question “who will win Euro 2020?”. We will also be sharing some betting tips for the Italy vs England game that could help you get a bang for your buck.

But before we get there let’s take a look at the numbers and how Italy and England reached the final…

Bookmaker odds for Euro 2020 Winners Before the tournament

We have mentioned the odds and probability of the top 8 teams that bookmakers expected to win just before Euro 2021 kicked off. These odds were calculated on June 7 2021, just 4 days before Euro 2020 kicked off.

TeamOddsProbability of winning Euro 2020FIFA rankRank in Europe
France5.6517.10%22
England6.216.10%43
Belgium7.513.30%11
Germany911.10%128
Portugal9.3110.74%54
Italy9.510.50%76
Spain9.7510.30%65
Netherlands13.87.26%1611

As we can see from the data above, France were clear favorites to lift the European Championship in 2021 and were closely followed by England .

Italy on the other hand were not even in the top 5 teams in terms of probability of winning Euro 2020.

Biggest Upsets During Euro 2020

Just like many major tournaments,. Euro 2020 saw some major upsets.How did Italy beat the odds to reach the final of Euro 2020? Why did France not reach the final? We will answer all those questions below:

  • The first major upset could have occurred on June 23 when Germany faced Hungary. Hungary was leading 2-1 in the 68th minute. This would have resulted in Germany not qualifying for the knockout stage in a major tournament since the 1984 World Cup. But a goal from Goretzka saved Germany from this fate and they qualified for the knockout stage where they faced England.
  • The first major upset in Euro 2020 happened on june 27 in the round of 16 when Switzerland who had 1.45% probability to win Euro 2020 defeated the tournament favorites France.
  • The second major upset happened the next day when the Netherlands were defeated by Czech Republic. The Czech Republic had a 0.76% chance of winning Euro 2020 compared to the Netherlands who had a 7.26% chance and performed exceptionally well during the group stage.

Who will be the Top Scorer in Euro 2020 Odds and Predictions

PlayerGoalsOddsProbability
Cristiano Ronaldo52.4740%
Patrik Schick52.4740%
Harry Kane44.223.80%
Raheem Sterling3214.80%
Ciro Immobile21001%

From the odds table for the top scorer in Euro 2020 we can see that Ronaldo and Patrick Schick seem to be the favorites to win the golden boot in Euro 2020.

Harry Kane comes in next after scoring 4 goals in his last 4 games. He has a 23.8% probability of being the top scorer and we take into consideration the fact that he is also adept at making assists, he has good odds at being the top scorer in Euro 2020.

It could be hard for Raheem Sterling to be but it’s not impossible. He hasn’t scored a goal in the last 2 games but if he manages to score 1 he could end up being the top scorer in Euro 2021. With odds of 21, this could help you potentially win $210 from a $10 bet.

Ciro immobile has a very slim chance of being the top scorer in Euro 2020 with bookmakers giving him a 1% probability. No player has scored a hatrick in the history of the European Championship so it seems unlikely that he might score a hatrick and Harry Kane doesn’t score as well.

But this might be a good bet for a small amount of say $5, which you expect to lose and are placing a bet for fun considering the 100x payout.

Now onto our predictions for the Euro 2020 Final between Italy and England.

Italy vs England Euro 2020 Final Predictions

The Italy vs England game in the finals of Euro 2020 will be a very hard game to predict since both of these teams are evenly matched.

In order to make our predictions we will be relying on the odds set by bookmakers, the form of each team in the tournament and statistics. We won’t be relying on the head to head past results between Italy and England because those games have been played over years.

So let’s get started with comparing the form of Italy and England

England and Italy Comparison of Performance during Euro 2020

England is a team that has been progressively getting better during the course of Euro 2021 while Italy has remained consistent in its performance.

During the group stage, England qualified with 2 wins and a draw and scored just 2 goals but conceded 0 goals. Italy on the other hand scored 7 goals, and conceded 0 goals.

TeamGoals scoredGoals concededShots per gamePossession
Italy702059%
England207.354%

Concerns were being raised by England’s “cautious” playing style and some pundits expected England to lose against Germany in the knockout stage. However, England surprised the pundits and won 2-0 against Germany while playing some good entertaining football.

This was a historic win for England and the first time they defeated Germany in the knockout stage of a major tournament in 55 years.

Italy beat Austria in extra time, a team that was renowned for its ability to defend.

In the quarterfinals England faced a relatively easy opponent in Ukraine and yet again played some fantastic football scoring 4 goals and won the game 4-0.

Italy faced a formidable opponent in Belgium who are ranked as the number one team by FIFA. Italy were leading 2-0 in the second half before conceding a penalty which Lukaky converted.

Italy held on as Belgium attacked ruthlessly in the second half while also creating some good scoring opportunities on the counter against the best team in the world.

In the semi finals England dominated Denmark and registered the most shots in any game they played so far with 59% possession and 20 shots while Denmark only managed only 6.

Italy faced another difficult opponent in Spain. Spain were also favorites to win Euro 2020 at the start of the tournament. Italy struck first and then defended well but Spain ultimately equalized with 10 minutes to go and the game went into extra time and was decided on penalties.

We can see that England faced one of the favorites (Germany) on their triumphant march to the final of Euro 2021. Italy on the other hand had to beat 2 other favorites, Belgium and Spain in order to earn their place in the final.

Overall Form of Italy and England

England are unbeaten in 12 games while Italy is unbeaten in 33 games. Both teams have a good defensive record with England’s 7 game streak of clean sheets broken by Denmark while Italy’s clean sheet record was broken in the round of 16.

Italy vs England stats

TeamGoals scoredGoals concededShots per gamePossession
Italy1231852%
England1019.553%

After the knockout stage, England has picked up a lot of goals and their shots per game have increased. Both teams look evenly matched in terms of the team stats

Now we will compare the stats of key players starting with the midfield

Italy beat England in terms of creating through balls with a combined average of 1.8 through balls between Jorginho(11th highest through ball rate in Euro 2020),Insigne,Immobile and Barrella.

Only Luke shaw (18th) features in terms of creating long balls in the top 20 players who created through balls

Italy are also superior in terms of key passes stats

Barrella has created the third highest key passes per game, followed by Insigne who is seventh and Spinnazzola who is 15th

England only has Mason Mount on that list of top 20 players in Euro 2020 with the highest key passes per game and he is ranked 16th

The Italians also dominate in stats for shots per game with 3 players featuring in the top 20 while England have no players on that list

If you look at the stats for interceptions and tackles per game you will notice Italy yet again outperforms England.

Italy vs England Euro 2020 Final Odds

The odds are constantly changing for this game. As of july 8 2021,bookmakers are offering the following odds for the Italy vs England game in the Euro 2020 final:

  • England 2.65
  • Draw 3.00
  • Italy 2.95

From these odds we can clearly see that bookmakers believe that the game odds are very close between the two games which means that Bookmakers believe the game could go either way.

However, based on the lower odds and payout for England, we can see that bookmakers favor England to win.

Who will win in the final of Euro 2020 between Italy and England

We at slotfreespin disagree with the bookmakers odds and favor Italy to win Euro 2020. We disagree with the bookmakers because there is a chance that bookmakers are offering lower payouts for England because English fans around the world might be more exciting and backing their team compared to Italians.

Keep in mind that the gambling profits are larger in the UK compared to Italy. The UK market is worth $3.8 billion while the Italian market is worth $1.7 billion. 

We believe Italy will win by very fine margins but England will manage to score. We predict Italy will win 2-1 in the Euro 2020 final.

Italy will in our opinion because statistically they have technically better players with higher interceptions,tackles per game, key passes per game and through balls per game compared to England’s players.

Bookmaker offers for betting on Italy vs England in the Euro 2020 final

In our opinion, b-bets is one of the best bookmakers for betting on the Euro 2020 final game between Italy and England. b-Bets currently has a cashback offer that gives you €1 back for every €5 you make on a bet on the Euro 2020. 

You can click on the following image to visit b-Bets and claim this offer in their promotion section.

Where will the Euro 2020 final between Italy and England take place?

The Euro 2020 final between Italy and England will take place on July 11,2021 at the Wembley stadium in London. The game will kick off at 2100 hrs.

Italy vs England Lineups

Italy Predicted line up

4-3-3

Donnarumma,Emerson,Bonucci,Chiellini,Florenzi,Verratti,Jorginho,Barella,Insigne,Immobile,Chiesa

England predicted line up

4-2-3-1

Pickford,Shaw,Maguire,Walker,Rice,Kalvin Phillips,Grealish,Mount,Sterling,Kane

Italy vs England Euro 2020 Final Betting Tips

If you read our articles on football betting systems and football betting tips, you would realize Italy vs England is the perfect match to place a bet on in Euro 2020.

The reason for that is simple, the odds for both teams are above 2.0 and it will be a closely contested match.

We have a betting tip for you that could help you win some money no matter who wins…

Place one bet on Italy to win and one bet(of equal amount) on Spain  to win. In this case you only lose your money if there is a draw but that is unlikely to happen in such a crucial game.

So essentially what you do is you split your budget for the game. Let’s say you have a budget of €200 for this game. You place one bet of €100 on Italy and another €100 on Spain.

If Italy wins your Profit percentage would be 47.5% because your Profit would be €310-€200=€95 and 110 is 47.5% of your investment of 200.

If England wins you would still end up with a 32.5% profit (€265-€200=€65 is 32.5% of 200).

Sure, this system means that your profit percentage would be lower if you just bet on one team (195 % profit if you just bet on Italy and 165% if you just bet on England) but this system reduces the chances that you will lose your money.

Keep in mind that this is not a fool proof system. If the match ends in a draw.

TeamOddsBet AmountWinProfit %
Italy2.95€100€29547.5%
England2.65€100€26532.5%