England vs Germany Euro 2021 Predictions & Betting Tips
England vs Germany will be the seventh game in the knockout stage in Euro 2020. The England vs Germany match will take place on June 29 at 1800 hrs Central Eastern European Summer Time at the Wembley Stadium in London.
England Form, Predicted line up and Tactics
England qualified to the knockout stage in Euro 2021 as winners of group D. England won 2 of their games and drew 1 game and finished the group stage without conceding a single goal.This is the first time they have qualified for the knockout stage without conceding a single goal in a major tournament since the 1986 World Cup.
England have been pretty solid defensively and have now kept a clean sheet in 15 of their last 19 games and have only conceded 5 goals in these games.
Going into this game against Germany, England have played 8 games in 2021 and have been unbeaten in these games. England has also won 7 of these games and drew one of them and just conceded once in all these games.
But while England is defensively solid and disciplined they haven’t exactly come across as a very attacking team. England hasn’t scored more than 1 goal in their last 5 games.
England’s second game in the Euros against Scotland ended in a 0-0 draw and it wasn’t a match that neutral fans would have loved to watch. England created the 4th fewest gol scoring attempts amongst 24 teams during the group stage.
Check out our predictions for the Euro 2020 Final!
England is also the first team in the European Championships to top their group with the fewest goals scored (2).
In 2021 England shifted from a 3-4-3 formation to a 4-3-3 formation. They like to build up attacks paitently from the back and prefer to counter-attack quickly with their pacey forwards.
As neutral fans we personally felt that England were playing a bit too cautiously in the group stages instead of playing more directly but from a tactical perspective they did a good job in maintaining their shape and preventing attacks.
We expect England to switch back to a 3-4-3 shape in the England vs Germany match in the knockout stage of Euro 2020.
The reason for that is quite simple, England would want a numerical advantage in midfield, to prevent attacks from the wings. England would seek to quickly attack Germany on the break as soon as they win the ball.
If England are in possession of the ball we expect them to build up slowly and patiently, prioritizing high possession and attacking Germany quickly as soon as they find space with line breaking passes.
During the group stage however, we didn’t see England do this because they were playing cautiously. It will be interesting to see whether England will be more aggressive and direct against Germany.
How England will attack
Southgate tends to set up his side defensively but in such an important game he might be a bit more daring.
Usually, the defenders tend to stay deep but in this game he could push them higher up the pitch and allow them more freedom considering their center backs are ball playing center backs and have the ability to progress play and make line breaking passes.
England will attack from width with their fullbacks Luke Shaw and Kieran Trippier. Harry Kane likes to drop deep to collect the ball, make forward passes to his team mate and then rush into attack.
Maguire can whip in long balls from the left, while Stones can push up when needed and can form a diamond between himself, Kane and the two midfielders Rice and Kalvin Phillips.
Kyle Walker is a natural right back and if more pressure needs to be put on Germany, Walker can push forward and offer more passing options on the right for this diamond.
Walker could also interchange with Trippier in attack and his position can help prevent attacks on England’s right side.
Sterling and Foden will cut inside the box instead of staying wide.
These two will have to work very hard to fall back when England loses possession.
England Predicted line up
England will be missing out on Mason Mount after both he and Ben Chilwell were forced to quarantine after they hugged their Chelsea teammate Billy Gilmour during the England vs Scotland game and Billy Gilmour tested positive for Covid after the game.
He could have started from the right because he is also good at falling back and defending.
Germany Form, Predicted line up and Tactics
After a 15 year stint as the head coach of Germany, Joachim Low will resign after Euro 2021.
Germany had mixed fortunes before the start of Euro 2020 .Germany’s form in 2021 has been mixed. Prior to Euro 2020 they played 5 games,winning 3, drawing 2 and losing 2-1 to North Macedonia.
Even though Germany lost 1-0 to France, the Germans played well, creating many chances, especially in the second half.
Germany did quite well against Portugal by stretching the play wide and involving Ginter in attack.
However they were very poor against Hungary both defensively and in attack before Muller, Goretzka and Musiala were introduced to help them score 2 goals and draw level against Hungary and qualify as runners up in Group F.
Germany’s mainstay in defence in previous tournaments, Mats Hummels was dropped by the manager in 2019 who said that he would plan without Hummels for the foreseeable future, along with his club teammates Jérôme Boateng and Thomas Müller.
Jogi Low experimented with many players but failed to find his perfect center backs and he reintroduced Hummels and Muller to the squad.
While Muller has justified his reintroduction to the squad, Hummels has struggled in Euro 2020.
He conceded an own goal against France and had a miserable performance against Hungary.
Due to lack of options at the back the preferred center backs now seem to Rudiger and Hummels if 2 center backs are being played while Ginter is added if Germany sticks to a formation requiring 3 center backs.
From a 4-2-3-1 formation Die Manschafft has shifted to a 3-4-3 formation in recent games.
Kimmich has retained his place as the preferred right wingback and his attacking prowess from the wings has been particularly impressive.
We expect Germany to press high against England.
Toni Kroos seems to be the mainstay in midfield while he can be partnered with Gundogan who had an excellent season with Manchester City or Leon Goretzka.
Goretzka missed the game against France due to injury and he is unlikely to start against Portugal. But he put in a wonderful performance when he rescued Germany with his goal in the second half against Hungary.
Gosens was excellent against France and he will be expected to start as the left wingback.
Toni Kroos and Gundogan will start in midfield due to uncertainty surrounding Goretzka’s fitness.
Germany lacks a proper striker. Gnabry has often started in this position, Timo Werner often slots into this position but they lack clinical finishing. This was obvious in their game against France where many amazing opportunities were created without being converted.
How Germany will attack
Germany will look to press England very aggressively and try to cover Declan Rice so that he doesn’t have passing options and struggles to progress the ball.
This tactic was used by Scotland to great effect against England which resulted in the game ending in a 0-0 draw.
Germany knows that England is a hard team to break down and are capable of making line breaking aerial balls, something Hummels had struggled with so they will be wary of this and the defensive line might not be pushed too high.
They might use the tactic they used against Portugal to attack from the wings by adding the wide centerbacks. In the game against Portugal, Kimmich would drop deep, draw out Bernardo Silva, while Ginter sneaked around from his defensive positions, progress the ball and make crosses into the box or make long ball to the other wingback, Gosens.
If they can’t make this move on the right, they will do it from the left by passing backwards.
Another way Germany could attack is shown in the picture above. In this case Germany is attacking from the left. The Left midfielder, Gosens is a bit deeper while kimmich is also sitting a bit deeper than usual but higher than Gosens.
This would give Germany many options like doing what we discussed above with Gosens making a long ball to kimmich, or playing combinations with havertz and kross to either cut inside the box while havertz moves wide to make a cross or allowing kroos to make a diagonal run so that he can make a cross, or move forward and occupy the space Havertz leaves as he drifts wide.
The space that Kroos would leave would then be filled by Gosens.This would help protect Germany from counter attacks.
England vs Germany Euro 2021 Odds
Bookmakers are offering the following odds for the England vs Germany match in the round of 16 in Euro 2020:
- England 2.55
- Draw 3.20
- Germany 2.90
Based on these odds we can see that bookmakers are giving a slight advantage to England and believe that England has a slightly better chance of winning.
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England vs Germany Euro 2021 Predictions
Matches like this with two equally matched teams are very hard to predict. That being said, we will try to make a calculated guess for this Euro 2020 knockout match between England and Germany.
We will try to predict this game based on the tactics these two teams employed during the group stage. When it comes to predicting England’s tactics for this game though, that is easier said than done.
We already mentioned how England played during the group stage but until this point in the competition they haven’t come across a tough team so they could switch things up instead of the cautious football they played during the group stage.
We personally feel that they will continue to play this cautious style unless they concede a goal first.
We won’t be surprised to see this game being decided in extra time or penalties.
We already pointed out the weaknesses that Germany has been suffering from during the competition and even before, which was the leaky defence,Hummels being the primary culprit.
We don’t expect this game to have plenty of goals but then again that depends on two factors:
- England conceding an early goal
- England’s decision to play more boldly.
Raheem Sterling scored both of England’s goals during the group stage while Germany’s top scorer is Kai Havertz and he scored 2 goals as well.
England vs Germany Betting Tips
If you read our articles on football betting systems and football betting tips, you would realize England vs Germany is the perfect match to place a bet on in Euro 2020.
The reason for that is simple, the odds for both teams are above 2.0 and it will be a closely contested match.
This means that you can triple your money by betting on England or a draw and double your money if you bet on Germany.
That being said, we have a betting tip for you that could help you win some money no matter who wins…
Place one bet on England to win and one bet(of equal amount) on Germany to win. In this case you only lose your money if there is a draw but that is unlikely to happen in such a crucial game.
So essentially what you do is you split your budget for the game. Let’s say you have a budget of €200 for this game. You place one bet of €100 on England and another €100 on Germany.
If Germany wins your Profit percentage would be 31.03% because your Profit would be €290-€200=€90.
If England wins you would still end up with a 21.57% profit (€255-€200=€55. 55 is 21.57% of 200).
Sure, this system means that your profit percentage would be lower if you just bet on one team (190 % profit if you just bet on Germany and 155% if you just bet on England) but this system reduces the chances that you will lose your money.
Keep in mind that this is not a fool proof system. If the match ends in a draw you will lose but as we pointed out earlier, the likelihood of a draw is very low.
|Team||Odds||Bet Amount||Win||Profit %|
Some other betting options you can opt for during the England vs Germany game in Euro 2020 are:
- Bet on the game going into overtime. Odds 2.95
- Under 2 goals to be scored in the game. Odds 2.34
- England to win with a total of under 2.5 goals scored during the match. Odds 4.90
- Germany to win with a total of under 2.5 goals scored during the match. Odds 5.40.
- Raheem Sterling to score and England to win. Odds 13.0
- Raheem Sterling to score and Germany to win. Odds 90.0
- Kai Havertz to score and Germany to win. Odds 16.0
- Kai Havertz to score and Germany to win. Odds 90.0
Euro 2020 match predictions for other knockout stage games:
We have match predictions for other games in the round of 16 in Euro 2020. Feel free to check them out!